As someone who works in the industry, the biggest tell-tale sign that baseball is on the way back is when Scott White and the Fantasy Baseball Today staff shred several real and fake drafts a week. That time has come. And let’s be honest – there is no better way to prepare yourself for your drafts than to compare and evaluate how the industry has drafted their teams. So today’s newsletter is going to be all about drafts. It will also be about finding Julio Rodriguez this year and other potential picks that you can win the league with.
We have two drafts to review – a 12-team Roto version and Chris Towers’ Tout Wars project. Both drafts couldn’t be less like the others. Towers’ Tout Wars sums it up in a format that scrapes the batting average by on-base percentage, wins innings pitched and collects saves as a save plus category.
We’ll wrap things up below with some news and observations from the weekend.
H2H Roto Mock
The main takeaway to get started
The theme of this draft was simple – don’t wait for ADP to come to your buddies. In other words, if you feel like the best player available that ADP expects to be out of the board one, two or three rounds later – don’t wait for that to come because you’ll miss out more times than once. I feel this is especially important during the 2023 renewal season because in this range where you might normally be able to get away with waiting for your man – and craft a boring but productive player – there are very few such boring and productive (safe, floor high) players.
It is also important to note that we are still fairly early in the draft season and ADP can be very unreliable. Use it more as a grain of salt than as a pillar in your draft strategy and you’ll come away with a list that you’ll feel much better about.
Scott discussed this concept in a more eloquent manner:
From Scott: “When you consistently formulate and indulge in ADP statements, you have a clear concept of when people prefer to sleep. He should Go, but no one was waiting in this place. Lars Nutbarr is ranked 118th (compared to 188 by the ADP), Miguel Vargas is ranked 135th (compared to 248), Jordan Walker is ranked 168th (compared to 228), and Oscar Cola is ranked 205th (compared to 307). I love all of these players, but I love them partly because of the opponent. I hope it won’t go away completely.”
Scott was pulling off the 12th position and was defending back to back. Here’s how his team played:
Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers
Louis Robert, White Sox
JT Realmoto, C, Phyllis
Alec Manoah, SP, Blue Jays
Teoscar Hernandez, Mariners
Max Muncie, 2B/3B, Dodgers
Ryan Pressley, RP, Astros
Kenley Jansen, RP, Red Sox
Treston McKenzie, SP, Guardians
Anthony Santander, Orioles
Jeremy Pena, SS, Astros
Tony Gonsolin, SP, Dodgers
Charlie Morton, Braves
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies
Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks
Jose Berrios, SP, Blue Jays
Oscar Colas, White Sox
Merrill Kelly, SP, Diamondbacks
Miles Mikolas, SP, Cardinals
Brandon Drury, 3B/2B, Angels
Jake Fraley, Reds
Joey Bart, C, Giants
My thoughts
In our last newsletter, I loved Scott and his team’s final execution. This is what I love more than love. I think Scott himself strayed a little from what he’d been preaching this season when drafting Freddie Freeman – first baseman – at the 1/2 turnover. Ultimately I felt this made him a weak outfield—a rare position as third base and second base—and perhaps even rarer.
I liked the way Scott practiced what he preached and made sure to get a few of his favorite sleepovers including Colas and Tovar. I’m also on Team Ketel Marte this year – a player I have no doubt will be on a lot of my list given his pent-up ADP after the 2022 season.
Here are the full results for the project.
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Scott’s main takeaways
- The first two picks in Ruto’s last 12 draft picks, Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez, were the third and fifth picks in that pick. It’s not off limits. We’re basically seeing the same five players top each league using 5×5 scoring, but the ranking seems mostly a matter of preference. I think Judge and Ramirez are the better two, but at least Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuna, who went with the first two picks in this one, also play a rare position. The one I’m most reluctant to do is Trea Turner since high-quality shortstops generally go into the middle rounds.
- I’d love to go to outfield, third base, second base at the start of every draft this year, but I’m unlikely to pick the 12th overall, where I did. The seven first-caliber players are almost certainly through by this point, and while it’s never too early to pick out which third baseman you prefer, his pairing with Mike Trott, the only player worthy of a second-round pick, feels like a bit too much. . Connect with Freddy Freeman who is still on the board. There may come a time – not too far from now – when I will be convinced Fernando Tatesse is the best way to go. After all, he’ll be getting eligibility on the field not long after returning from suspension in late April.
- One of the oddities of this particular draft is that a few of us felt compelled to pay a premium for an ace. I mean not just in the first round, which probably goes without saying at this point, but when it was my turn to pick at the end of the third round, four of my top five players available were bowlers. That’s because Cedric Mullins, Randy Arosarina, Ozzie Alpes, and Kyle Schwarber have all cruised to the third round, which is closer to how I prefer to draft. I’m just not used to a lot of others mirroring me.
- However, I decided to stick with the plan, picking Lewis Robert and JT Realmoto with this pair of picks and settling on Alec Manuah as a standout in the fifth round. And do you know what? I’m still pleased with the way the show’s cast turned out. I find that no matter how much pressure is placed on the chuck when the pitcher starts, this is always the case. The middle class is pretty deep, and I like the value of guys like Merrill Kelly and Miles Mikulas, two must-haves from a year ago who’ve only lasted until rounds 19 and 20 this time around.
These are the participants, so after you click the link to see the mock results, be sure to follow them all on Twitter (handles below):
1) B _ withoutRaspol (@employee)
2) Frank StampfelCBS Sports (@employee)
3) Tim KanackFantasy Aceball (@employee)
4) Mike Giannellabaseball prospectus (@employee)
5) Michael Waterloothe athlete (@employee)
6) Tim MacLeodProspect 361
7) Chris TowersCBS Sports (@employee)
8) Jake Weinerprospects 1500 (@employee)
9) JR Fentonparticipant in TGFBI (@employee)
10) Raymond AthertonFantasy Aceball (@employee)
11) Jake Hollandpreviously known as The Toss Up (@jakebaseball17)
12) Scott WhiteCBS Sports (@employee)
Tut Harob Towers Project
It is always necessary to adjust your strategy draft according to your league settings and that is exactly what Chris did in Tout Wars draft. Tout Wars isn’t too different from a typical 12-team Roto league, but there are a few different settings that make a huge difference in how you want to craft your roster.
It’s a 12-team gridiron league with some ups and downs. We use seven of the ten standard scoring categories, with the following changes:
- Instead of multiplying by the average, we use the base percentage.
- Instead of saving, we use saves plus holds.
- Instead of victories, we use narrated innings.
Here’s how Chris’ team rocked from the five hole:
| 1.5 | Mookie Betts, OF, LAD |
| 2.8 | Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, SD |
| 3.5 | Max Scherzer, P, New York |
| 4.8 | George Springer, OF, TOR |
| 5.5 | Justin Verlander, BP, New York |
| 6.8 | Emmanuel Class, B, Klee |
| 7.5 | O’Neil Cruz, SS, pit |
| 8.8 | Byron Buxton, OF, MIN |
| 9.5 | Salvador Perez, C, Kansas |
| 10.8 | Christian Walker, 1b, ARI |
| 11.5 | Jorge Polanco, Michigan, Maine |
| 12.8 | Nestor Curtis Jr., B, New York |
| 13.5 | Chris Sale, B, Boss |
| 14.8 | Dustin May, P, Ladd |
| 15.5 | Riley Green, Det |
| 16.8 | Jesse Winker, MIL |
| 17.5 | Tyler Glasnow, BB, TB |
| 18.8 | Yandy Diaz, 3b, T |
| 19.5 | Grayson Rodriguez, P, PAL |
| 20.8 | AJ Minter, P, ATL |
| 21.5 | Brian De La Cruz, Department of the Interior |
| 22.8 | Edward Cabrera, P, Mia |
| 23.5 | Brandon Drury, 3B, Los Angeles |
| 24.8 | Travis D’Arno, C, ATL |
| 25.5 | James Karinchak, F, CLE |
| 26.8 | Oswaldo Cabrera, from New York |
| 27.5 | Luis Garcia, 2B, WSH |
| 28.8 | Alex Kirillov, from, Maine |
| 29.5 | Spencer Steer, CI, CIN |
My thoughts
Chris took a tough approach in this draft with several ceiling high investments with a history of injury. And I’d expect nothing less from Chris, who shares a similar “if you’re not the first, you’re the last” approach to fantasy sports. Swinging to the upside is our calling card and you don’t need to hit them all when you spread gambling across the draft. That said, I’m worried about his innings progression and think his crushing yardage could blow his entire team apart if they suffer injuries.
Those who participated in the draft with full results:
- Matt Trussell, Razpol
- Sarah Sanchez, bleedcubbieblue.com
- John for Gaza, The Athlete
- Jeff Boggis, fantasy football empire
- Chris Towers, CBS Fantasy
- Andy Behrens, Yahoo Fantasy Sports
- Alex Fast, list jar
- Brian Entreken, Fantasy Bros., Baseball HQ
- Carlos Marcano, Triple Play Fantasy
- Dylan White, Baseball America
- Chris Clegg, Listed Pitcher
- Gene Piacente, Sports Illustrated
And here the The full results of the project.
News and notes
- Astros DH Jordan Alvarez is yet to progress at swinging a bat.
- Phillies 3B Alec Bohm hit his second home of the spring and could be in line for a potential breakout if the changes he made to his launch angle can stick.
- White Sox SP Mike Clevinger will not face discipline after MLB investigation. In addition, he has voluntarily accepted evaluations by the MLB/MLBPA joint therapy boards and will comply with their recommendations, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.
- Cardinals 3B/O Jordan Walker hit second and third teammates in the spring. He went 4 for 4 with two homers on Saturday. If you’re listening, this is the sound of the ADP Walker screaming up.
- Brewers SP Freddy Peralta hit two perfect runs on Saturday.
- Rangers SP Jacob deGrom is set to take on neighborhood hitters for the first time this spring on Wednesday.
- Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner continued to lead Saturday and hit a one-hit – triple RBI. If Horner can stay in the starting spot, he’s a fun sleeper in the middle.