The Sacramento Kings, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2006, the current longest drought in the NBA, defeated the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday for their eighth victory in their last 11 games and are now just one game back in second place. Memphis Grizzlies.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ loss created a five-way tie for the bottom of the Western Conference play-by-play race, starting with the No. 9 Utah Jazz and ending with the No. 13 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Here’s a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Qualifiers and the playoff races entering play on Tuesday. This post will be updated daily for the remainder of the regular season, or until all seeds have been taken out.
A reminder of how cycle play works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of match 7-8 gets to receive the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of match 9-10 for the No. 8 seed.
is reading: The clincher picture for the Eastern Conference
NB: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and accurate projection imaginable.
Western Conference
Nuggets must go into the absolute tank to explode the first seed. With 17 games remaining, they effectively hold a seven-game lead over the No. 2 Grizzlies with a tiebreaker secured.
- Expected seeds: 1
- Current first round match: to be announced later on
- Memphis tiebreaker: Denver has snatched
- Tiebreaker versus Sacramento: The season series is tied 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Phoenix: Denver leads the season series 2-0 with two to play
2. Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis seed looks weak now that Ja Morant is out indefinitely. With 19 games remaining, the Grizzlies lead the No. 3 Kings by one in the loss column and the No. 4 Suns by four. Looking on the bright side, Memphis has the easiest remaining schedule in the league.
- Expected seeds: 2
- Current first round match: Mavericks/Clippers game winner
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: I took out nuggets
- Tiebreaker versus Sacramento: The Kings are currently owned by conference record
- Tiebreaker against Phoenix: Grizzlies have cross section leader
3. The Sacramento Kings
The Kings have won eight of their last 11 and trail second by just one in the loss column. Presently, they also own the tiebreaker over Memphis with the highest winning percentage in the conference. The Kings have a three-game lead over the No. 4 Suns, but there are two head-to-head games remaining. Our SportsLine model has the Suns eventually passing Sacramento for the No. 3 seed.
- Expected seeds: 4
- Current first round match: versus the Timberwolves
- Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Memphis tiebreaker: The Kings are currently owned by conference record
- Tiebreaker against Phoenix: The Suns lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker against Golden State: The Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
4. Phoenix Suns
The Suns are 3-0 since the Durant deal and have a great shot to get past the No. 3 Kings, who are three games behind with two games left to go at. The Suns lead the No. 5 Warriors with three effective games with a tiebreaker secured.
- Expected seeds: 3
- Current first round match: vs. Warriors
- Memphis tiebreaker: Grizzlies have cross section leader
- Tiebreaker versus Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker against Golden State: grab the sun
- Tiebreaker versus the Timberwolves: The Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker versus Dallas: The Suns currently have a cross conference winning percentage
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: The Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
5. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors continue to struggle on the road, falling to the Lakers without LeBron James on Sunday in Los Angeles. However, they have won five out of six and hold a one-loss lead over the 6th-ranked Wolves and 7th-ranked Mavericks.
- Expected seeds: 5
- Current first round match: against the Suns
- Tiebreaker against Phoenix: grab the sun
- Tiebreaker versus the Timberwolves: The Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker versus Dallas: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: The Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans: The Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Utah: Warriors grabbed
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Coyotes are tied in the losing column with No. 7 Dallas and only one in No. 8 Clippers and No. 9 Jazz. The good news is, the Wolves own the tiebreaker on both teams, so the cushion is effectively two games. The race to stay above the line of play is going to be tight. SportsLine doesn’t like Minnesota’s chances of doing that.
- Expected seeds: 7
- Current first round match: in royalty
- Tiebreaker against Phoenix: The Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Golden State: The Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker versus Dallas: Grab the wolves
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: Grab the wolves
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Utah: Wolves currently own the Cross Division Register
- Tie-breakers against the Lakers: Grab the wolves
PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT
7. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have lost six of their last 10 players to fall below the line of play, and are tied for the loss column with the No. 6 Wolves, who own the tiebreaker. Dallas trails No. 5 Golden State by just one game but leads the No. 11 Lakers by just two.
- Expected seeds: 8
- Current first round match: vs. Clippers (play-in)
- Tiebreaker against Phoenix: The Suns own the conference winning percentage
- Tiebreaker against Golden State: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker versus the Timberwolves: Grab the wolves
- Tiebreakers vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns a cross conference record
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
- Tie-breakers against the Lakers: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
8. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are two running backs from the No. 5 Warriors, one running back from the No. 6 Wolves, and just one running back from the No. 9 Pelicans, No. 10 Jazz and No. 11 Lakers. Our SportsLine model loves to soar above the line of play.
- Expected seeds: 6
- Current first round match: in mavericks (play in)
- Tiebreaker against Phoenix: The Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Golden State: The Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker versus the Timberwolves: Grab the wolves
- Tiebreaker versus Dallas: The Mavericks currently own a cross-conference record
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans: The Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker against Utah: Jazz clinch
- Tie-breakers against the Lakers: Grab the clippers
9. Utah Jazz
Utah has the same 31-34 record as the No. 10 Blazers, No. 11 Lakers, No. 12 Pelicans and No. 13 Thunder. In tie-breaking scenarios involving three or more teams, the nod goes, in order, to the team with the best head-to-head record against all participating teams. At the moment, jazz is leading the way in this scenario.
- Expected seeds: the lottery
- Current first round match: vs Blazers (Play In)
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans: Jazz clinch
- Tie-breakers against the Lakers: The Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: The Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
- Portland tiebreaker: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
The Blazers, for the time being, are taking to the field because of New Orleans’ loss to Sacramento on Monday. See the Utah section for an explanation of tiebreakers involving three or more teams.
- Expected seeds: the lottery
- Current first round match: In Jazz (Playin)
- Tiebreaker against Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tie-breakers against the Lakers: The Blazers currently have the conference winning percentage
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans: The Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder snatched
Looking outside
11. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have the same 31-34 record as the No. 9 Jazz, No. 10 Blazers, No. 12 Pelicans, and No. 13 Thunder. In tie-breaking scenarios involving three or more teams, the nod goes, in order, to the team with the best head-to-head record against all participating teams. For now, that leaves the Lakers out of the championship.
- Expected seeds: 10
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Utah: The Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Portland tiebreaker: The Blazers currently have the conference winning percentage
12. New Orleans Pelicans
After losing to the Kings on Monday, the Pelicans have the same 31-34 record as the No. 9 Jazz, No. 10 Blazers, No. 11 Lakers and No. 13 Thunder. See the Lakers section above for details on how to sort tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams.
- Expected seeds: 9
- Tiebreaker against Golden State: The Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker versus the Timberwolves: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker versus Dallas: The Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker against Utah: Jazz clinch
- Tie-breakers against the Lakers: Los Angeles leads 2-1 with one player
- Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelican grab
- Portland tiebreaker: The Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
13. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have the same 31-34 record as the No. 9 Jazz, No. 10 Blazers, No. 11 Lakers and No. 12 Pelicans. See the Lakers section above for details on how to sort tiebreaker scenarios involving three or more teams.
- Expected seeds: the lottery
- Tiebreaker against New Orleans No. 9: Pelican grab
- Tiebreaker against No. 10 Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
- The tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Lakers: Draw 1-1 with one to play
- Tiebreaker vs Portland No. 13: OKC settled